Outstanding Miniseries or TV Movie
The nominees (alphabetical order):
American Horror Story Asylum
Behind the Candelabra
The Bible
Phil Spector
Political Animals
Top of the Lake
I don't need to spend a lot of time here, everyone knows it's gonna go to Behind the Candelabra. After winning 8 Creative Emmys on Sunday, you know it's gonna win. It's also a lock for Directing and Writing so I won't do them either.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Al Pacino, Phil Spector
Benedict Cumberbatch, Parade's End
Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Toby Jones, The Girl
They're definitely going to give this to Michael Douglas, it's the biggest lock of the night (besides The Daily Show). Sure, Matt Damon has a small chance to upset, but Douglas is playing Liberace, an iconic musician.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Elizabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story Asylum
Laura Linney, The Big C Hereafter
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
Jessica Lange has this in the bag (she also won for this role in Supporting last year). Elizabeth Moss is a close second, but Top of the Lake is one of those love it or hate it miniseries. Sorry Elizabeth, maybe in 2014 or 2015 for Mad Men.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
James Cromwell, American Horror Story Asylum
John Benjamin Hickey, The Big C Hereafter
Peter Mullen, Top of the Lake
Scott Bakula, Behind the Candelabra
Zachary Quinto, American Horror Story Asylum
This is a tough race between James Cromwell and Peter Mullen, but like Actress, I'm giving the edge to Cromwell. Zachary Quinto would be in the running but his character doesn't get the wow moment until the second half of AHS Asylum and the Movie/Miniseries categories don't have episode submissions.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias
Charlotte Rampling, Restless
Ellen Burstyn, Political Animals
Imelda Staunton, The Girl
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story Asylum
No competition, Sarah Paulson has this in the bag, end of story.
So now that we have the incredibly easy Miniseries/TV Movie categories out of the way, let's move on to Comedy.
Outstanding Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
Veep
There are 3 that have a shot and 3 that don't. The ones that don't have a shot are TBBT, Girls, and Veep. The first two never had a shot; TBBT still has never gotten a writing or directing nomination and Girls is just there because they like Lena Dunham. Veep used to have a chance until Sunday when it lost Casting in a Comedy Series (an award many were expecting Veep to get) to 30 Rock, leading us to believe that even though the increase in nominations shows that they like it, it's not enough to win. Now for the three that could win. Modern Family won no Creative Emmys on Sunday so that automatically dropped it to third for me. For the longest time I've had 30 Rock at the top, then switched to Louie a few weeks ago, but after it won Casting, I moved it up to first. It also has the benefit that this is their last chance to award the show with series, so I'm predicting it to win.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Louis C.K., Louie
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
This is a pretty weak category based on the episodes they submitted. Alec Baldwin screwed up big time by not submitting the finale so he's out of the race. Matt LeBlanc is barely in his episode, Don Cheadle might be a bit too dramatic for voters, and Jason Bateman submitted the season premiere which turned voters off for nominated Arrested Development for other categories, so it's between Louis C.K. and Jim Parsons. C.K.'s submission has a lot of heart in it (the one where he asks Parker Posey's character out) and Emmy voters love heart (and him), therefore I'm giving the edge to him.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Lena Dunham, Girls
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Edie Falco and Lena Dunham aren't in this race, end of story, it's between the other four. Dern's is a dramatic one so she has less of a chance but could win it. Tina Fey is good in the finale, but it better showcases the other characters (looking at you Baldwin). JLD could break the trend where in the past 12 years Patricia Heaton was the only person to win twice for the same character and she has a very good submission, but I'm going with Amy Poehler on this one. Not only is her submission the longest (the 2 part wedding episode), but it's also filled with heart. I'd be extremely happy if she won, and I'm predicting her.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Adam Driver, Girls
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neil, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Tony Hale, Veep
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
First off, why the hell is Adam Driver in here? Considering Nick Offerman or Will Arrnett could have easily taken that spot and even win is a disgrace. Anyways, it's another very weak category. JTF had a weak submission and Tony Hale used to have a shot but Veep support isn't as big as we think it was. Bill Hader had the best submission but I don't think it will be enough for voters. Ed O'Neil's is full of heart and Emmy voters could go for that, but I'm going with Ty Burrell. If Emmy voters are going to let one Modern Family actor win it'll be him. Not ruling out Hader or O'Neil though.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Merritt Weaver, Nurse Jackie
Sofia Vegara, Modern Family
It's unfortunate that this and Lead Drama Actress got 7 nominations since they're two of the weakest categories. We're looking at a two person race between Jane Krakowski and Julie Bowen. I'm giving the edge to Krakowski since she has the best submission, longest screentime, and will voters really give it to Bowen the third time in a row?
Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series
30 Rock- Hogcock, written by Jack Burditt and Robert Carlock
30 Rock- Last Lunch, written by Tina Fey and Tracy Wigfield
Episodes- Episode 9, written by David Crane and Jeffrey Klarick
Louie- Daddy's Girlfriend Part 1, written by Pamela Adlon and Louis C.K.
The Office- Finale, written by Greg Daniels
The fact Episodes got in baffles me, pass. Hogcock is definitely the weaker of the 2 part finale so voters will rank Last Lunch higher. The Office finale and Louie have a chance, but I'm going with Last Lunch since it's the very last episode of 30 Rock, a show voters love, and it was written by Tina Fey.
Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series
30 Rock- Hogcock and Last Lunch, directed by Beth McCarthy-Miller
Glee- Diva, directed by Paris Barclay
Girls- On All Fours, directed by Lena Dunham
Louie- New Year's Eve, directed by Louis C.K.
Modern Family- Arrested, directed by Gail Mancuso
Yes folks, Glee got a directing nomination, how? I don't know. Girls and Modern Family don't have much of a shot, and like Writing (and series too), it's between 30 Rock and Louie. I always predicted one would get one and the other gets the other, and Louie will be getting this one.
To finish up the article, it's time for some tough ones, Drama:
Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men
It's weird, last year Mad Men and Downton Abbey were frontrunners to win now this year they aren't, funny huh? Game of Thrones underperformed at the Creatives so that's a sign. House of Cards has a small chance because it's the hot new show, but it's between Breaking Bad and Homeland. And you know what? Breaking Bad is going to win. The show is insanely popular now and S5P2 started before the votes closed, so what many refer to as the greatest show of all time might finally win!!!!
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Damien Lewis, Homeland
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
The only one with no chance at all is Bonneville. Anyone else could win. Jeff Daniels has the opening monolouge and Jon Hamm had a good episode, but I'm not sure it's enough. Kevin Spacey could pull a Damien Lewis like last year, but once again, it's between Cranston and Lewis. And like series, Cranston is getting the edge.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes, Homeland
Connie Britton, Nashville
Elizabeth Moss, Mad Men
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
First the four with no chance: Britton, Dockery, Wright, and Moss. Very weak submissions from them, and had Wright or Moss been in supporting they could have had a shot there. But as it is, it's between Danes, Washington, and Farmiga. Washington has a tour de force episode and could win it for her, but I'm not sold. Farmiga also has a chance, but is Bates Motel the kind of show they'd want to award? I've always been going with Danes and I'm sticking to my gut here.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
This is a toughie. Jim Carter is the only one with no chance, but any of the others could win. If you asked me a few weeks ago I would've said Cannavale has no chance but now I'm thinking he could win. Peter Dinklage and Aaron Paul are previous winners and I'm thinking the top 2 spots on the ballot will go to Banks and Patinkin. I'm giving the edge to Banks on the fact his character dies in his submission (shut up, you've had a year), but Patinkin could easily win. This is the toughest category, I will say that.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Christine Barinski, The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Barinski is doing her typical Good Wife fare, not enough to win. I would say Emilia Clarke could win, the only problem is that she's only in the episode for a whopping 6 minutes and doesn't appear until the very end. That could set a lot of voters off. Christina Hendricks could have won last year, but this year's submission isn't enough. Baccarin has a chance, but it's between Anna Gunn and Maggie Smith. Everyone knows that Anna Gunn deserves to win for her performance in Fifty-One, but this is exactly what happened with Hendricks last year: Had the best submission but Maggie Smith beat her. I'm still going with Anna Gunn since Breaking Bad is the hot show.
Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series
Breaking Bad- Dead Freight, written by George Mastras
Breaking Bad- Say My Name, written by Thomas Schunaz
Downton Abbey- Episode Four, written by Jullian Fellowes
Game of Thrones- The Rains of Castamere, written by David Benioff and D.B. Weiss
Homeland- Q&A, written by Henrey Bromwell
These are all very well written episodes, but when you get down to it, it's between Dead Freight and Q&A. I have this small feeling voters will be split between the Breaking Bad episodes and give it to Q&A, but I'm leaning towards Dead Freight.
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire- Margate Sands, directed by Tim Van Patten
Breaking Bad- Gliding All Over, directed by Michelle MacClaren
Downton Abbey- Episode Four, directed by Jeremy Webb
Homeland- Q&A, directed by Lesli Linka Glatter
House of Cards- Chapter 1, directed by David Fincher
It's a three way race between BE, BB, and HOC. Downton Abbey doesn't have a chance and Q&A is better written than directed. Boardwalk Empire is a common favorite in this category and that's why I'm including it in here. David Fincher has the advantage and disadvantage he's a popular director. Martin Scorsese won for the Boardwalk Empire pilot a few years ago, but Quentin Tarantino didn't win for directing CIS, so ultimately I'm giving the edge to Gliding All Over.
Thanks for reading, and let me know what your predictions are in the comments or on Twitter (@ThemeParks4Life)!
No comments:
Post a Comment